Why Market may move up faster than down?

 20^th March 2023

Why Market may move up faster than down?

Dear Fellow Investors,

Namaste! Our post on Jupiter Mesh Sankranti was super hit. It was appreciated by astrology following and students of astrology like anything. Thanks for the same. If you meet 10 investors today and ask them about the market – you may find that 8-9 are negative about the market. So, let us see why market may go up faster than down?

What are the reasons given for MARKET TO GO DOWN?

When I was going out last week – my Bihari Watchman asked me in his usual tone – Saab, war hoga ka? Thanks to the social media spread – news are spreading like wild fire.

Usually, following reasons are given for the market downfall.

·    Possibilities of WAR between India and Pakistan / India and China

·      Ukraine-Russian was escalating to World War 3.

·      Banking crisis leading to situations like 2008.

·      Interest rates keeps in rising.

·      Inflation keeps on rising.

·      Natural Calamities.

·      Rising SEA levels leading to Tsunami.

·      Break out of Corona or some such viral disease which can take life of major populations.

· Economic growth going down and it will affect the profitability of the corporates.

·      Robots and AIML taking JOBS of the people and increasing the unemployment.

Do you think – a normal Watchman can give you such reasons and MARKET IS NOT KNOWING ABOUT THEM?

The point is simple – Market is aware about all the possibilities listed above and it has already discounted. So, Market will not go down due to any of the above reason mentioned above. So, if you are staying away from the market due to above reasons – you will miss the opportunity when the market goes up suddenly.

Why Market is not moving up fast so far then?

Market is always futuristic. It always expect the future events in advance and discount the same in present.

Nifty made 8000 in May 2020. When the news about new vaccine came and lock down was removed – it expected that economy will boom and will cross the 2019 levels fast. So, the nifty moved to 12000 first and 17000 later. After that it made 19200 something.

While the nifty moved up – many of the industry which was down in growth due to COVID – barely crossed the growth rate of 2019 in the later part of 2022.

It means market did not get the expected fast growth in economy post COVID vaccination. It means market is RANGE BOUND. It made 18700 something in October 2021 and the highest is 19200. It means since October 2021 – market is in MANDI or RANGE BOUND. Market started discounting the above reasons way back in October 2021!!

If you look at the bluest of the blue chip stocks like –TCS / INFOSYS / CIPLA / TITAN / PGHH / NESTLE / COLGATE / ASIAN PAINTS / PIDILITE / RELIANCE and many other have gone down in the last 1 year or more. It means – the market was already in MANDI for the last 21 months – if you calculate from OCTOBER 2021 on wards.

Just to give you the example of RELIANCE – it was 2200 something in SEPTEMBER 2020 and Nifty was 11800 or 12000 something at that time. It means if you look at the company having the highest weight in the NIFTY is still available at SEPTEMBER 2020 rates. This is known as TIME WISE CORRECTION in the market parlance.

So, the point is MARKET is in correction mode since October 2021.

If you see the larger stocks in any portfolio – they are down to the nifty levels of 10000-14000 while nifty is at 17000 plus now. It means the market has already corrected long back. Look at the SIP performance of the last 2 years and you will see they are below 6% or negative. It means the market would have corrected faster – if the SIP money would not have come!! 

What is the TRIGGER for the market going forward?

If you look at India – we have lot many state elections and parliament elections in 2024. Market is expecting MODI JI will win and as per the market expectations they may get 380 seats or more. It means market is expecting MODI JI will come again. Now, the market can become drastically negative only and only if MODI JI loses in 2024. Do you see that chances?

USA is also going for ELECTION in 2024. Naturally, the democrats will not wish that the republicans come to the power. So, BIDEN and his team are doing needful over there also. They will also manage their banks and other crises at the best levels.

I am not sure for the USA but for India – MODI JI is coming for sure and he is managing the Indian economy with the least amount of negative affect as of now. See how the ADANI issues was managed and the banks money was returned before the loan maturity. So, I am relax for Indian Market.

So, if at all the market has to correct BIG WAY – it will happen post ELECTIONS only!! Not NOW.

What could be the positive surprises?

Modi Ji is in powerful phase of his life. So, he may avoid the WAR with any country before 2024 elections. If at all he does the war – he will make it FAST and SWIFT like BALAKOT AIRSTIKE attack on PAKISTAN in FEBRUARY 2019. The attack claimed to have killed 300-350 terrorists. Modi Ji knows that he can’t afford long war at this juncture.  

No major calamities happen or if at all they happen – there are no major economic damages.

Inflation and interest rates are brought to the manageable levels.

Finding of the permanent solutions for CORONA kind of VIRUSES. (This is possible as per our astrological study shared in Jupiter post yesterday).

Economic growth starts to pick up. This will also happen as per our astrological calculations.

Market will be the first to discount any of the above possibilities and it will blast.

How smart money is playing now?

When you are in doubt about the market look at the smartest of the smart people in the market. Don’t look at the next door neighbour who is investing in SIP or MF. Don’t look at the HNIs or ULTRA HNIs who are investing few crores. Look at the people who are investing billions at this moment.

1.   USA based GQG Partners bought ADANI Group shares and made tons of money.

2.   Bill Ackman said Regional Banks in the USA are incredible bargain when the banking stocks were down 40-50% and the next day banks stocks were up 20-40%.

3.   Buffet is in touch with BIDEN minsters to take stake in some banks as per the news in the USA. Buffet always says - Cash is KING in crisis if you have the courage.

Conclusions: -

1.   If you are staying away from the market due to above given reasons – you are 100% mistaken and missing the opportunities of making tons of money.

2.   Market is already in corrective phase since October 2021. It has already discounted the above 10 reasons. To fall further – it needs NEW and DRASTIC NEGATIVE REASONS. I am unable to see those possibilities before 2024 elections end in the USA and in the India.

3.   Nifty 1 year forward P/E is near its 10 years average. It means at Nifty levels also the correction has happened.

What is the most likely scenario?

Market will not perform as per normal investors calculations for sure. It will always surprise them. If market has to surprise the Nay Sayers in the market – Nifty will cross 19200 first. It will make new high. All the Nay Sayers will come to the market at that time and the market will start correcting.

In the process – they will lose the money making opportunity of 2023 for sure.

If you like our thought process – be with us and make tons of money.

Wish you all the best.

Follow me on Twitter @hiteshmparikh /  WhatsApp - +91-9869425399.

Learn a Lesson. Live with Passion & Invest with Reason.

 

Hitesh Parikh.