India Shining. Modi Ji Shining. Yogi Ji Shining. But the Market is not. Is there anything wrong?
1st March 2025
India Shining. Modi Ji Shining. Yogi Ji Shining. But the Market is not. Is there anything wrong?
Dear Investors,
Namaste! Market is bleeding. Portfolios are also bleeding. Market saw the biggest weekly fall this week. As per the data – this is the longest fall in the market in the last 30 years or so. In this post we are trying to see the total situation. Let us start with the facts.
1. India’s GDP is going to move up: - Thanks to government spending in the 4thquarter and Kumbh – the sales of the India incorporations are likely to move up by 6-8% in January to March Quarter. As per today’s media release GDP growth was 6.2% in the Q3 and it is likely to move up 6.5% in the last quarter.
This is lower than last year’s figure of 7.2% but it is more than 5.4% of the government’s expectations in October 2024.
So, the GDP is moving up. This is FACT.
2. Modi Ji’s International relationships: -
Modi Ji’s recent USA visits has made a big difference in the importance of INDIA in the international levels. The EU commission head has come to meet us and now they are trying to please Modi ji to help them with the USA.
Today – USA / RUSSIA / INDIA and ISRAEL have become the major powerhouses in the world.
It means – India is well positioned to deal with other countries like CHINA and PAKISTAN.
3. Steady Government: -
Though the MODI is running the coalition government – he is in super control of the participants. With the recent win in Delhi – BJP has become the new powerhouse in India. There is no opposition party who can beat the BJP at the national level.
This means – we can expect the STEADY GOVERNMENT in the foreseeable future.
4. Budget and Increased income tax limits: -
The recent budget was a path breaking budget with respects to the holistic growth of India. With the increased focus on the capital expenditure and consumptions through increased income tax benefits to the salaried class up to Rs. 12 lakhs – the government has achieved the two goals of increased SUPPLY and increased CONSUMPTION.
This will add to the GDP growth in the coming time.
5. Once in a lifetime arrangement of the MAHA KUMBH: -
With 66 Cr people coming to the PRAYAGRAJ this is the WORLD RECORD. Never in history – we have seen such a gathering in the world. This was the EXCELLENT management and tons of management books will be written on the same in the times to come.
This has added Rs. 3 Trillion to the GDP as per the statement by Yogi ji. This will pay the way for such gatherings in the future. The next KUMBH is in 2027 in NASIK and 2028 in Ujjain.
Huge business will come in the TRAVEL RELATED industry in the times to come.
See the FACTS – they are all pointing to the good times ahead. But the MARKETS are going down. What could be the reasons?
1. Lower GDP growth: - From last April we have been writing that the GDP growth is not 7.2% as projected by the governments. We also told them that in October to December they will revise the same and they revised to 5.4% in October. Market is going down from October onwards only.
However, as stated above – the market should start discounting the 6.5% GDP for the full year.
2. TRUMP and TARIFFS: - Trump has started on a war footing to Make America Great Again. From this week they will levy 25% tariffs on CANADA and MEXICO. This has created a HAVOC in the financial market about the implications and further such announcements.
Well, India is relatively unaffected by the tariffs and we have agreed for RECIPROCAL tariffs as against the one side tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
As such I see TRUMP will have a tough time to keep his stand post April onwards. He will be forced to change his stand. So, there will be a RELIEF in the market at that time. However, the market will change before that. So, those who are not acting in the PANIC now will miss the Investment opportunities at the lower levels.
3. The USD rate moving up against INR: - 1 USD is now INR 87.45. It was Rs.83 in September 2024. So, the Rupee has gone down by 5-6% against the USD.
Now, FIIs who invested in 2020-2023 – their average rate was in the range of Rs.72-74 per USD. Assume they invested USD 1 lakh – they would have got INR 74 Lakhs. Suppose they have made 50% gain in the last 3 years – they are having Rs.1.11 cr. Now, if they want to convert to the USD – they will get Rs.1.11/87.45 – they are getting USD 1.27 lakhs. This means their gain of 50% is reduced to just 27% for the 3 years.
With the USD moving up by 5-6% in just 5 months – they are forced to sell to protect their gains – in case the INR falls further.
This is one of the main reasons for the selling by FIIs.
4. US bond yield moving up: - For the first time in the last 40 years – US bond yields are moving up in spite of the FED rate cut in the last 6 months. This has given another opportunity to FIIS to invest back in the USA. This is another major reason for selling by FIIs.
What was our call for the year 2025?
With the GRACE of my GURU – I am able to see the coming time with much clarity.
In our post-dated - 12th September 2024- How do we see the year 2025 based on ASTRO-NUMEROLOGY science? Unique Analysis.
We had said following: -
If we combine – MARS + URANUS and NEPTUNE it means the results will be more EMOTIONAL and it will affect all of us like a wildfire. Nobody is above EMOTIONS.
But If I see the last component – MERCURY – the picture changes and gives me clarity. MERCURY is the CORE TREND of the year. MERCURY means BUSINESS / TRADE / PROFITS.
( MERCURY MEANS BUSINESS and TRADE WAR is also for business supremacy).
So, all of the above EMOTIONS will be spurred for POWER / POSITIONS and MONEY. Got the picture?
What does it mean for NORMAL investors?
If you become EMOTIONAL either you will sell your shares in PANIC or not invest more amount at this moment. In both cases you will be a loser.
However when the market becomes steady – which I think will happen sooner than later – you will regain your intelligence ( MERCURY) that you should not have sold your shares in panic but invested more in PANIC.
I can indicate about the coming time but I can’t give CASH and COURAGE to the fellow investors.
What NEXT?
If your portfolio is bleeding – read this post with patience. There is nothing wrong with India as a country / Indian economy and Indian Leaderships.
Use your common-sense and take the right actions.
If you want holistic guidance in the area of personal destiny or financial destiny – you can approach us.
Wish you all a very happy weekend.
Follow me on Twitter @hiteshmparikh / WhatsApp - +91-9869425399.
Learn a Lesson. Live with Passion & Invest with Reason.
Hitesh Parikh.
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