Gold Imports are down by 59%!! We have some FACTS to share.
Saturday, October 15, 16
Gold Imports are down by 59%!! We have some FACTS to share.
Greetings from Hitesh! India's gold imports declined by 58.96 per cent
to 270 tones, from January to September, from 658 tones that were shipped-in
during the corresponding period of last year, as per the reports.
Why
imports are down?
The NORMAL story is the strike of 41 days by
jewelers has affected the sales of the GOLD. Those who wanted to buy could have
bought during the strike (BACK DOOR sales) and after the strike also. Moreover,
the leading JEWELLERY chains were open during that period, as they did not join
the STRIKE. So, I am not convinced by this logic. I have some solid proof to
share with you.
Let us
see how the gold price moved this year?
Gold prices were around 25000 per 10 grams during
first 15 days of January and it spurted to 28000 by 27th January. In
FEBRUARY Gold made 31000 for 10 grams. Then the STRIKE started and during March
also the price was in the range of 30000 for 10 grams and in April it spurted
to 31500 for 10 grams.
How
Investor’s PSHYCHOLOGY Works?
When the RATES were 25000/- in the market – the
talks were going on about 22500/-. So, most investors were waiting. Sudden jump
of 20% in a month was shocking to them and they missed the bus. They could not
MUSTER the courage to buy at those prices. Instead, they went into DENIAL mode.
Many were thinking this TEJI, in GOLD, is FAKE. But when the prices kept on
moving up the FEAR caught them and Investors become DESPERATE to grab the GOLD.
Gold made 32500 in July!!
My
EXPERIENCES with NORMAL Investors: -
They operate from EGO. When market moves against
their expectations – they say MARKET is WRONG!! Fact is they are WRONG. Market
is always RIGHT!! But when he operates from EGO, it is futile to argue with
him.
On 5th December 2008, when we gave a
BOLD call to buy - very FEW LISTENED to us. When on the BUDGET DAY SENSEX hit
12500, they were in DENIAL mode like this time in GOLD. The SENSEX made 17000
by July 2009!! Most of them came to the market at 17000 SENSEX!!
So, the real
reason for LOW imports is MISSED opportunity by MEDIA following Investors
rather than STRIKE or any other reasons.
Yesterday
only we talked about HYPERINFLATION and we dealt with the aspect of sudden
buying will start and NORMAL guys will miss the opportunities.
There is another side of GOLD import story. Let
us see that also.
What is
the WORLD GOLD COUNCIL STATISTICS Says?
The World Gold
Council is an association whose members comprise the world’s leading gold mining companies. The World Gold Council's activities and
interventions across the entire supply chain
As per World Gold Council estimates the GOLD
imports to India is Down by 20%. Our official gold import estimates say we are
down by 59%. So, there is a GAP of 39% between the TWO. What it means that 39%
of the GOLD in India has come UNOFFICIALLY this year!!
If you go through the MEDIA reports – there were
many seizure of GOLD from VARIOUS AIRPORTS all over the India. What about the
GOLD, which has come without the NOTICE of the AGENCIES? What about the GOLD
that might have come through Sea Route or Road Transport?
If you look at the GOVT initiative for WHITE
MONEY, it is quite possible that the guys with HUGE cash would have jumped into
this business. Property required a long gestation period while GOLD can spin
money FAST. So, GOLD was the only avenue for CASH holding guys. The 39%
difference explains the same.
The
MAJOR ATTRATCTION for UNOFFICIAL GOLD TRADING
There is a 10% duty on GOLD in India. So, there
is a GAP of 10% price between international market and India. This is a very
big incentive for the guys with CASH. Let me give you an HYPOTEHTICAL example –
say somebody buys GOLD from DUBAI – comes to MUMBAI in the morning. Sell Gold.
Take CASH. Convert into FOREIGN CURRENCY. Take Flight and go back to DUBAI by
the EVENING!! In practice this may not be so easy as I write, but yes, this is
possible.
Say somebody does one TRIP a WEEK. Every week 10%
and for a month it works out to 40%!! Where on the earth you can make such
money without TAX? Say he has to spend 20% on the Flight and other expenses –
he makes cool 20% each Month. He doubles his money every 5 months!! All thanks
to GOVT Policies. (Govt. is also aware about this. But it is still keeping the
duty at very high rates. Why?)
World Gold Council report also says that this
time there is a HEAVY JUMP in investment demand of GOLD world over rather than
Jewelry demand. This is an additional factor supporting our belief about the
unofficial imports!!
What NEXT?
The MAIN point in this POST is to bring home the
INVESTOR’s PSHYCHOLOGY. More you understand, more you will be ALERT to Your
MIND’s CHEATING with you. When you know the CHEATING, you can force your mind
to take the right STAND and you will be able to take advantage of the
opportunities at the right time.
Many guys are not joining us for one or the other
reasons their mind is giving to them. The FACT is – by denying the NEED of Personal Investment Educator in their
life – they are going to be DESPERATE some day and make wrong moves. Have you observed most beautiful girls
often end up in relationship with not so HANDSOME guys at very early age? Do not allow
that to happen with your MONEY at least.
Take your own call. Wish you ALL A VERY HAPPY
WEEKEND.
Follow me on Twitter @hiteshmparikh /
WhatsApp - +91-9869425399 / www.hiteshmparikh.com
Live With
Passion…Invest With Passion.
Hitesh Parikh.
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