Which sector and shares will move up in next Teji?



8th September 2019



Which sector and shares will move up in next Teji?



Dear Fellow Travellers,



Greetings from Hitesh! I keep on receiving questions and I deal with the most important ones in my own style and at my own time. Reading our last three posts on the coming market scenario from the various perspective a reader has sent me the above question. In the weekend, I happened to meet a lot of new investor friends and they also have their genuine issue. Since both the issues are linked, I am dealing with them together.



What is my meeting with various investors tells me?



Most guys are stuck with shares which are down in prices. Many portfolios are down by 50% or more. Many shares which were darling of the market at one time have become penny stocks. They also want to invest NOW – but they have the following issues.



1.  What to do with their existing shares which are in losses?







I have already dealt with the 1st questions in my earlier post titled – the most important factor in the factor of investing at this moment. If you have missed that, please read that post. In any case, I am answering all the questions in this post also.





1. What to do with their existing shares which are in losses?



Just follow the 3 steps.



·      Look at the last 4 quarter results of the company you hold. Check whether performance is Improved / stable or gone down.

·      Look at the performance of price along with above.

·      If price shows undue selling pressure due to factors which are not related to the business of the company/balance sheet of the company or MANAGEMENT of the company – go ahead and start adding those shares.



The above requires – checking each and every company in your portfolio from all the angles. We are doing this for our clients. If you want – you can take our help in doing a detailed analysis of your existing portfolio. This is a very time-consuming exercise and we study it from various angles – company/industry/asset allocation/investment goal of the client. This is FREE for all our clients. If you are not our client, but if you still want this report – you can take this service by paying small one-time fees.



2. Will it not make sense to hold them till they get their purchase price back?



I am in the stock market since 1992. I have seen 6 cycles of Teji and 6 cycles of mandi so far. Let me give examples of what moved in the various cycle.



1992: - Harshad Mehta TEJI and the theme was REPLACEMENT COST. What it will take to establish the same company at the current price? If the particular company's market value is valued less than that – buy it. They took ACC to Rs.10000. Those who did not SELL ACC at that price – never got that price in last 28 years!!



1994:  - FIIs were allowed to invest in India for the first time and it took some sectors up at that time. The major theme was FINANCE COMPANIES. I remember there was a company called ALPIC finance – which was quoted at 520 in 1995 and vanished later on.



1997: - FMCG companies shares moved up as if there is no tomorrow. HUL / Colgate / ITC were the movers.



1999/2000: - Ketan Parekh and his 10 STOCKS were moving. The theme was IT shares. Infosys made Rs.16000 and P/e was 100 something. Many so-called it stocks like SATYAM are not seen now. Stock like HFCL where CARRY PACKER have said to invest at Rs.2200 is still available at Rs.20 around.



2005-2007: - Construction / Engineering / Infrastructure was the theme of these TEJI. See the prices of them now. Many companies have vanished.



2009 to 2017: - This was perhaps the longest TEJI period in an overall sense for the world market and India thanks to MONEY PRINTING by USA / EUROPE and easy monetary policies by JAPAN and CHINA.



What is the conclusion from the above facts?



In every New TEJI, new sectors and new companies will move up. Knowing this WARREN BUFFETT has mostly concentrated his portfolio in consumables. He is the SMARTEST of the smart and what he has done makes sense. You will east / drink and consume many things for sure. He had not invested in APPLE till 2013!!!



So, you need to take the STEP 1 as said above. Your WISHFUL thinking that stocks will move up SOMEDAY will not materialize as per the historical facts.



3. How to generate capital for the NEW PURCHASE?



If you do the 1st step properly – you will get the capital from that exercise and from your existing income/balances you can do fresh investment.



4. What is the guarantee that this time they will have no losses?



Let me ask you some of the questions before I tell you the exact strategy.



a.  What is the guarantee that you will be able to spend all the money you have earned before you die? – Still one goes on accumulating money for tomorrow!!

b.  How many of you are sure that you will live above 80 years of age in good health? – still, you do retirement planning!!

c.  How many of you are sure that your KIDS will support you when you become old? – Still, you produce and bring up the kids.

d.  How many of you are sure that you and your spouse will live together till you die? – Still, you spend lakhs and crores on MARRIAGES!! In fact, there is growing incidents of divorces immediately after marriages.



e.  How many of you are sure that LAKHS and CRORES you are spending on so-called MODERN EDUCATION and TUITION FEES will convert into an equally well-paying job or business for your kids? – still, you spend on them.



The point is there is no guarantee of success in whatever you are doing in ANY FIELD. That’s why in GEETA, Lord KRISHNA had said – your right is in doing KARMA, I will decide the reward.  



Who had thought that there will be just 3 companies in TELECOM area and IDEA will be traded at Rs.5/- in spite of belonging to BIRLA and VODAFONE family?



However, smartest of the SMART find out the guarantee in their unique style. I have always followed this in all the areas of my life and I have never suffered setbacks. I am sharing the same with you all.



Buffett has 215 companies and some 15 companies were the star performer. Rakesh had 33 companies and some 4 companies have made him what he is today. In recent months he had lost crores in DHFL as per SEBI data, in spite of being so close to the company.



But what they did makes sense to me. They invested in a number of companies over a period of time, after doing a thorough study. They kept watching them in terms of performance and invested more and more in those companies which were doing good. I have often given RAKESH example of investing in TITAN from Rs.40 to Rs.900. That way he has focused on just 4 companies out of 33 companies. This became his guarantee and he is wroth today Rs.15000 Crores. Same is the case with BUFFETT.



So, the idea is to go on investing in performing companies and get out of the non-performing ones. If you want to do that effectively – either you should have a good consultant who can guide you at every step or you must do it yourself. I am helping all my clients with the above 2 – I guide them also and teach them also.



5.  Which sectors and shares will move up in next Teji?



This post – I have dealt with the history of the market and what one should do to have a guaranteed return. I will deal with this question in my future post.



If you want to make tons of money – be with me NOW.



Have a GREAT INVESTING.



Follow me on Twitter @hiteshmparikh or on Whatsapp - +91-9869425399.


Live With Passion…Invest With Passion.






Hitesh Parikh.

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