Massive Fall In Silver Prices. What is our take?

31^st January 2026

Massive Fall In Silver Prices. What is our take? 

Dear Fellow Investors,

Namaste! Yesterday, our post was on the Plane Crash. Last night the Silver priced crashed by 37% in a single day. This is the biggest single day fall in silver prices on record compared to 31% fall in March 1980. Silver touched USD 120 and plunged to USD 84 in a single session. The Situation in the ETFs was the worst. Many fell upto 60%!! 

How do we see the scenario? 

In the last post of plane crashes – we said people get busy in the causes of the DEATH rather than the DEATH itself. They divert their focus on the reasons of DEATH. 

The same thing is happening. Tons of Inks will be wasted on reasons of the fall in prices rather than the fall itself. 

The truth according to us was simple – it had moved up one side so the fall also is one side. The only difference is when it was moving up normal guys were dancing,  now they are in gloom. 

How a typical arranged marriage is done in India? 

Boy is told about the Girl. She is beautiful / well educated and can take care of the house. 

Girl is told that the boy is handsome, well earning, only son and having his own flat staying alone. 

Now, both the people have been influenced by movies and they have never experienced romantic relationships – so both of them are not concerned with the above factors. All they are thinking is about ROMANCE when they meet each other for the first time. 

Another ritual happens – a typical first meeting happens at the girl’s place and the girl comes out well dressed with a TEA TRAY and meets the boy and his family. So, the boy assumes that his wife will be like this for a lifetime!! He is absorbed in the romantic thoughts when he sees the girl. So, he forgets about the reality of life post marriage. 

What happens when asset class prices move up one side? 

When silver was moving up one side – we were told that EV batteries will come in Silver and each battery would need 1kg silver. We were told Solar Panel will need tons of Silver. We were told China is selling Silver at a premium of USD 20 per ounce. We were also told that China has banned the export of the Silver. 

Compare the above with the pitch of marriage – beautiful / educated and home maker. Isn’t it similar? 

Our normal guy is seeing the dreams of Silver touching Rs. 5 lakhs to Rs.8 lakhs. He starts calculating his wealth – when the silver touches the magic figure of Rs.5 lakhs to Rs.8 lakhs. ( the way normal guys and girls gets busy in ROMANTIC thoughts when they meet for the first time). 

What did my first boss Mr. C Rajagopala Chari teach me in 1992? 

He was a retired UTI fund manager and aged about 63 in 1992. I was just 24 at that time. He made my foundation of investment basics very strong. He used to make one-line conclusions from his long experiences. One day he told me that – “you will come to know your REAL WIFE after the honeymoon and your wife will also come to know about REAL HITESH after honeymoon”.

All he was hinting is that ROMANCE is part of married life but the life has many other flavours also. And that flavours will get activated only post honeymoon!! 

He also taught me one of the most beautiful lessons for money making in life. He said – you may earn super money in some years of life and you may suffer losses or less income in some years of life. But when you look back on your earning life after 40 years or 50 years ( that is when you retire) – your income growth would average out 10-15%. This is true for 80% of the population. 

The same way – any asset class can move up like a rocket in the short term but in the long term everything averages out. Look at the long term returns from Silver / Gold / Equities or Real Estates.

So, when you get above average return in any asset classes in the short term – it’s a time to get alarmed. The up cycle will surely follow the down cycle.   

Rather than being greedy for catching the top – sell when it’s about to get to the top. This is rarely possible in practice. So, the key is to focus on your target returns when you enter the asset class. If that return is achieved – you can get out. Let other’s earn – if it still moves up. ( fixing up target return needs the balance of mind and with GREED and FEAR – it’s not possible for a normal guy to do).

His last lesson to me was when DEMAT was introduced for the first time in India.

He had retired at that time and I had gone to meet him at this residence. He asked me in his jovial style – Hitesh, will you prefer Virtual Sex or Physical Sex? I was not married till that time. So, he was having fun with me. 

I replied – physical. 

Then he said his last lesson – In the past  – JAR (Jewellery), JAMIN (Land) and JORU (wife) – were considered the 3 biggest assets of the person. They all give pleasure only when you see them / touch them / feel them. So, always go for physical assets.  

Learning from him, I have never gone for Gold Bonds / ETFs / Mutual Funds and SIPs. 

See, ETFs have corrected more yesterday than the physical silver. 

Message from our CHIEF ECONOMIC Advisor: -

CEA Anantha Nageshwaran in his recent podcast shared a beautiful observation – “last 40 years, countries became rich by concentrating on Money over Matter. Next 40 years will be focused on Matters over Money. One country produces matter and other prints money and they become rich. It can’t go like that. From now onwards you can’t just produce paper and become rich. You need to make things now to become rich.”

So, go for physical and not virtual assets. 

What NEXT? 

In Gita chapter 2, slok 27 Lord Krishna said – “One who is born is sure to die, and one who dies is sure to be reborn. Therefore, you should not grieve for what is inevitable (that which cannot be avoided).”

All assets will move in a cycle – up and down and down and up. The only thing which we don’t know is  – how much time will it take before it resumes the up cycle after down or down cycle after up?

Wish you all the best. 

Follow me on Twitter @hiteshmparikh / WhatsApp - +91-9869425399.

 

Learn a Lesson. Live with Passion & Invest with Reason.

 

Hitesh Parikh.