Tom Dick and Harry are recommending Gold and Silver. We have questions.

21^st October 2024

 

Tom Dick and Harry are recommending Gold and Silver. We have questions.

 

Dear Investors,

 

Namaste! In India Gold and Gold Jewellery are always purchased on auspicious days. As such, Gold is always in demand due to marriage and investment. Since last year Silver is also in demand for investments. Looking at the WAR and other negative scenarios – Tom Dick and Harry are recommending Gold and they are giving fancy targets. Let us start the post. 

 

Our Journey in the Gold and Silver: - 

 

When we didn’t have a blog – we used to send EMAILS. In 2006 for the first time we asked to buy Gold at 8000 per 10 grams and Silver at 17500/ per kg. Since then Gold has become 10X today giving us a CAGR of 14% for the 18 years  and Silver is giving a CAGR of 10% or so for the last 18 years. We have also recommended gold from time to time in the last 18 years and those who followed us are sitting on huge profit. 

 

Current Bullish calls on Bullions: - 

 

Open any YouTube channel and talk to the WhatsApp Guru – they are giving buy calls on Gold and Silver with Fancy targets. So, I decided to check the Demand and Supply of the Gold at the World level. 

 

1.   As per the Data – World Central Bankers are buying gold. This includes the bankers of China / Russia and India also. Now, CHINA is one of the biggest producers of Gold to the extent of 400 tns per annum and Russia produces 310 tons of gold. They are also buying the gold. 

2.   ETF funds are buying the GOLD and Silver like anything.

3.   Small and Big investors in China and India are adding gold. In the USA also there is a shift in trend with Gold buying. Their investors are also adding gold. 

 

The above are the 3 major sources of Gold buyers in the World as per Google in today’s time. 

 

Gold Production:- 

 

Top 10 Gold producing countries are producing close to 1500 tons to 1700 tons per annum. CHINA 400/ Australia 330 / Russia 310. More than 50% comes from these three countries only. So, new supply is fixed. 

 

Gold Demand: - 

 

As per World Gold council report – India only imports 850 tons of gold. If you check the last 10 years we are importing 600 tons to 800 tons each year. So, major supply is coming to India every year. 

 

China and Russia are also Net buyers of gold this year. China is converting its US dollars into gold. 

 

What are the broad conclusions?

 

1.   There is limited new supply of the GOLD. 

2.   India and China are the major buyers of Gold.

3.   ETFs are the new buyers of the gold.

4.   Small and big investors are adding Gold as per their fund flows to meet the uncertainties of the war like situations. 

Now, the question comes…

 

1.   Who is selling the GOLD? 

2.   Why is he selling the gold?

3.   What is the ultimate scenario he is thinking that he is selling all his gold as the prices are moving up? 

 

I don’t know the answer of 1^st and 2^nd questions but as an astrologer, I know the answer of 3^rd question and that gives me the clarity for the total game plan.

 

In 2020, we had written our post about Global financial reset. In July, we wrote our post – “World is dreaming about De-dollarization. We are sharing its effect on Gold for the long term”.

 

Since 2018 – our conclusion is the same. The USA has the highest debt. It means it has to pay money to the world countries for its consumption. Now, one day the end will come. We don’t know when that one day will come. 

 

In the last 10 years – NCLT solved the major debt of the corporates with 10-20% payment to the banks against their actual dues. It means all the banks were asked to write down the money given as losses.

 

If simple corporations having no money can get out with their DEBT with the blessing of the law makers  – the USA is technology and Military super power. Plus the USA has the most creative brains working with them. 

 

They can pull out any tricks like launching the new currency and setting the DOLLAR at 1/10^th of that. In other words – the USA will say I will pay all the countries in new currency and the new currency (let us call it FED COIN to make it easy to understand) at 1 fed coin equal to 10usd. Now say your gold is trading at USD 3000. With the new changes the Gold will be at FED coin 300. Gold will go down by 90% ( if this happens). 

 

The above is a hypothetical scenario just to understand what could be the ultimate situation. 

 

Best of the TOP guys know the game they are setting up to reach. So, they came out with CRYPTOS in 2009. Slowly they shifted their money to BITCOIN and other coins to save them from Dollar fall. Some have shifted to GOLD – so only gold moved in the last 18 years. 

 

How to deal with the coming scenario?

 

In the recent past 2020, we had seen the lockdown. All were at home and very few businesses were allowed. During that time the businesses like Food / Communications / Pharma / Medical / Educations were in huge demand. Suddenly OTT became the sunrise industry. 

 

The point is in the worst scenario in the recent past – we were spending on the above. It means those who were doing the above businesses prospered in the worst time also. 

 

So, if you are building your portfolio for the next 10 years or so, the above sectors can withstand any shock. 

 

Depending on your investing skill sets – you may find out some investment ideas which have strong moats like the above sectors or more. 

 

What NEXT for the Investors?

 

The above is a broad scenario for the coming time. You may agree or you may not agree. If you agree – you have many ideas to invest in. If you don’t agree – you have very limited ideas for investments. 

 

The general rule my master Buffett has taught me and I follow it to the core – when everybody is GREEDY – be FEARFUL. Today TOM DICK and HARRY are GREEDY for GOLD and Silver. I would prefer to keep a 15-20% gold and silver in my total investments and not more with average expectations for return and not for super-duper return.

 

Ideally, I recommend all my followers to work on 5 factors of success simultaneously for long lasting success. They are your VASTU / Yourself / Your Resources / Your Skill sets and Your LUCK. If you are not ready to work on all the 5 – you will get temporary success due to your luck or market situations. But it will not last for your next generations. 

 

So, think HOLISTICALLY this DIWALI and take personalised inputs from a DESTINY MANAGER to manage your destiny for the uncertain time.   

 

Wish you all a Happy Diwali and Happy New Year in Advance.

 

Follow me on Twitter @hiteshmparikh / WhatsApp - +91-9869425399.

 

Learn a Lesson. Live with Passion & Invest with Reason.

 

Hitesh Parikh.