If understand FIIs game plan, you will Invest in tons.
Friday, 08 May 2015
If understand FIIs game plan, you will Invest in tons.
Greetings from Hitesh! Our last two post on Salman Khan and Going beyond Arun Shourie have been well appreciated and I have received many emails of praise for making reader think. Today I am going to take up equally thought provoking data to gie you the perspective on FII. Till 2014, SEBI used to publish the FII data but now it is published on NSDL site. Let us look at the data first.
Net investment by FII as per NSDL in Equity:-
They have given the data since 1992-93. I want to share the data for the last three financial years only.
2012-13 Net FII investments in Equity Rs.140033 Crs.
2013-14 Net FII investments in Equity Rs.79709 Crs.
2014-15 Net FII investments in Equity Rs.111333 Crs.
If you look at the investment data from January 2015, it is as under.
January Rs.12919 Crs.
February Rs.11479 Crs.
March Rs.12078 Crs.
April Rs. 11721 Crs.
May(till 7th May) – Rs.5241 Crs.
Data Shows FIIs were following Hitesh Parikh’s Advice :-
Look at the data of FII in 2012-13/2013-2014 and 2014-2015….they were buying in tons. Major buying was done in 2012-2013!! How many times we told you to add more and more shares since 2009? If you look at the old data – in 2009-2010 and 2010-2011, FII invested Rs.1,10,000 Crs in each year!!
FIIs were net seller of just Rs.47000 Crs in 2008 when Sensex made 8000!!
See they were buying when you were sleeping!! We were shouting and telling you to invest / invest and invest – those who listened to our calls, are blessing us.
How to make Sense of the FII data?
In 2015 till APRIL they invested Rs.45000 crs plus and sold Rs.5000 Crs plus till 7th MAY. Indian market is down by 11% plus in last 30 trading sessions!!
If you assume their average USD conversion rate of Rs.50 in last three years, today they are losing 25% plus in currency!! Against that their shares would have appreciated by say 100%, still they have 75% profit!! This is approximation as it is not possible to get the correct figures!!
It is natural for them to book profit!! Since local guys lack the liquidity – they can’t sell lock stock and barrel. They will have to go 2 steps down and 1 step up.
Look at 2008 data – they just sold Rs.47000 Crs stocks and market was at the lowest levels!! They had to revive the market by pumping Rs.110000 Crs in 2009-2010!!
I have following points to make:-
What FIIs know that we do not?
Look at the GDP data in USA. It is 0.2% in Jan to March 2015. So rate increase may not come at all. Very poor data since they closed the Qe3. Now to revive the US economy – they may come out with QE4 or something like that. FIIs may know this. They know that they will have additional funds at near zero rate and very less investment opportunities. So, why not create panic in best performing market like India – take little down, take the USD rate up so they get shares worth Rs.65 for every USD with 11-15% discount in market price!!
Their average purchase price is at say Rs.50 and they are getting now Rs.65, 30% more shares for every USD + 15% discount in market prices….45% in a MONTH!! What else you need in life!!
What is my personal call?
There are many readers who are sitting on fence since 2008!! They have the golden chance to buy when market is down!! 11% discount is not a small discount.
If you want to know which shares to pick up – please contact us for personalised guidance.
I wish you a great shopping in Market!!
If understand FIIs game plan, you will Invest in tons.
Greetings from Hitesh! Our last two post on Salman Khan and Going beyond Arun Shourie have been well appreciated and I have received many emails of praise for making reader think. Today I am going to take up equally thought provoking data to gie you the perspective on FII. Till 2014, SEBI used to publish the FII data but now it is published on NSDL site. Let us look at the data first.
Net investment by FII as per NSDL in Equity:-
They have given the data since 1992-93. I want to share the data for the last three financial years only.
2012-13 Net FII investments in Equity Rs.140033 Crs.
2013-14 Net FII investments in Equity Rs.79709 Crs.
2014-15 Net FII investments in Equity Rs.111333 Crs.
If you look at the investment data from January 2015, it is as under.
January Rs.12919 Crs.
February Rs.11479 Crs.
March Rs.12078 Crs.
April Rs. 11721 Crs.
May(till 7th May) – Rs.5241 Crs.
Data Shows FIIs were following Hitesh Parikh’s Advice :-
Look at the data of FII in 2012-13/2013-2014 and 2014-2015….they were buying in tons. Major buying was done in 2012-2013!! How many times we told you to add more and more shares since 2009? If you look at the old data – in 2009-2010 and 2010-2011, FII invested Rs.1,10,000 Crs in each year!!
FIIs were net seller of just Rs.47000 Crs in 2008 when Sensex made 8000!!
See they were buying when you were sleeping!! We were shouting and telling you to invest / invest and invest – those who listened to our calls, are blessing us.
How to make Sense of the FII data?
In 2015 till APRIL they invested Rs.45000 crs plus and sold Rs.5000 Crs plus till 7th MAY. Indian market is down by 11% plus in last 30 trading sessions!!
If you assume their average USD conversion rate of Rs.50 in last three years, today they are losing 25% plus in currency!! Against that their shares would have appreciated by say 100%, still they have 75% profit!! This is approximation as it is not possible to get the correct figures!!
It is natural for them to book profit!! Since local guys lack the liquidity – they can’t sell lock stock and barrel. They will have to go 2 steps down and 1 step up.
Look at 2008 data – they just sold Rs.47000 Crs stocks and market was at the lowest levels!! They had to revive the market by pumping Rs.110000 Crs in 2009-2010!!
I have following points to make:-
1. I
do not buy the argument that FIIs shifting investments!! Rs.5000 Crs is pea
nuts by international standard!!
2. Shifting
of portfolio among FIIs is happening. Say US based FIIs are selling and UK
based FIIs are buying!!
3. Traditionally
it has always been said in India – sell in May and come back in October due to
RAIN season uncertainty in India.
4. On
23rd Nov 2011, we had written our most bold analysis and call on USD
– “Inside story of Dollar appreciation and
BSE Sensex”….the same happens every year post election!! Just read that on
our blog and you will understand the game.
5. Those
who have billions also have their media companies!! So, use commonsense before blindly
following MEDIA reports!!
6. Destiny
Management always support TRUTH and not RUMOURS!! Rely on official data!!
What FIIs know that we do not?
Look at the GDP data in USA. It is 0.2% in Jan to March 2015. So rate increase may not come at all. Very poor data since they closed the Qe3. Now to revive the US economy – they may come out with QE4 or something like that. FIIs may know this. They know that they will have additional funds at near zero rate and very less investment opportunities. So, why not create panic in best performing market like India – take little down, take the USD rate up so they get shares worth Rs.65 for every USD with 11-15% discount in market price!!
Their average purchase price is at say Rs.50 and they are getting now Rs.65, 30% more shares for every USD + 15% discount in market prices….45% in a MONTH!! What else you need in life!!
What is my personal call?
There are many readers who are sitting on fence since 2008!! They have the golden chance to buy when market is down!! 11% discount is not a small discount.
If you want to know which shares to pick up – please contact us for personalised guidance.
I wish you a great shopping in Market!!
Follow me on Twitter @hiteshmparikh Or
on Whatsapp - +91-9869425399.
Live With Passion…Invest With Passion.
Hitesh Parikh.
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