Has Market started Discouting the Post Election Scenario?

20^th March 2024

 

Has Market started discounting the Post-Election Scenario?

 

Dear Fellow Investors,

 

Namaste! The beauty of our mind is that it always wants to be at some good place in future. We all have dreams about the golden future. We rarely remain in present. Those who remain in present due to some situations – you will find that they complain that life is boring. They are happy to the extent they can imagine good things about their future. This is very general reading about the normal persons and may not be applicable to Enlightened persons – who remains in ETERNAL PRESENT. 

 

What about Market?

 

Market is a collective mind. Being a collective mind – it always remains in future. It loves to be happy today about the future good scenario and becomes unhappy today about the future challenging or bad scenario.

 

The irony of the market is that – it’s difficult to find out the real reason for its mood swings today till the events are happened or till it moves in one direction meaningfully. When it takes the turn on either side – we take it as correction / profit bookings / or some current event specific effect (say Electoral bond issue – as we see now). Those who gets into the analysis mode of linking the present events with the present market – goes for a toss as they miss the larger picture and larger opportunities. 

 

The best way to beat the market is to think ahead of the market and market events. 

 

What has been our ACCURACY with respect to the Future Predictions?

 

I always prefer to remain well ahead of the events when it comes to managing investments and life. For 2024, we had studied and started writing about it from August 2023. Since we are writing way ahead – the most normal readers take it casually or forget it. 

 

We wrote following while reading the horoscope of Modi ji on 5th August 2023. 

 

What is the indication of the above combinations and Dasha?

 

1.   All is not WELL. He will have to face tons of challenges and various issues. He may face issues with respect to his image and name. 

(Look at the electoral bond issues, aggressive SUPREME COURT Judge in getting out the information from SBI, Rahul getting super active in attacking the Modi ji, the way Modi ji is taking over the other party members for the election gains. This is creating the fighting in the party as the exiting and loyal BJP party members are not given the tickets). 

2.   He will have to take care of his health and physical attacks.

3.   Time till 20^th January is relatively good. If the election is done before 20^th January – he will have the upper hand in the results. (We are on dot with this also. See the events post 20^th January in his life). 

4.   Period post-21st January 2024 is going to be really tough. He will have attacks from all sides. The solace is that he will be able to deal with them all by his MAGIC and GRACE of GOD. 

5.   If the election is conducted after 21^st January 2024 – NDA will have to STRUGGLE to win the 353 seats which they won in 2019. He will have to compromise with the winning seats. (It seems, the market is also thinking the same).

 

What can happen in the election and post-election?

 

1.   Some of the NDA members or parties will join the opposition. Some senior NDA members will go against Modi Ji for sure. 

2.   Opposition will have a very strong hold with respect to their respective areas.

3.   Post elections there will be tons of infighting in the oppositions and Modi ji will be able to take support from some of them and take his leadership to the next level. 

4.   The period will be full of rumors and excitement. News people will be working extra hours for sure.

 

(The above was written on 5^th August 2023. Time will prove us right or wrong. Just wait till 4^th June 2024)

 

Looking at the current events – I am fully convinced about the above scenario taking place. 

 

What is Market doing now?

 

Market is collective intelligence and it’s the best. Buffett has said that when you go wrong in the market – you are wrong and market is always right. 

 

I feel market is discounting the coming election results but very few investors are able to pick up the signals now. 

 

What is my attitude towards the market?

 

When I started my career in share market in 1992 – my boss was Ex-UTI fund manager and he mentored me in the right way. He told me that don’t analyse your wife and market on day today basis. Just love them and your life and finances will be happy forever. I am following his advice for the last 32 years. I am a lover of the market. 

 

When you are in deep love – you don’t try to change your beloved. You change as per her mood. This is the same we have to do when we are playing in the market. 

 

Let me share simple steps to navigate the market following above advice. 

 

1.   Keep your commonsense intact in differentiating the Share Price Movement with the earning capacity of the business. If the business is not earning – share prices will not support. (your beloved may be in negative mood due to hormonal changes that doesn’t mean she hates you).

2.   Look at the larger picture. Since independence we would have 100s of elections. Life and market have always moved on irrespective of who won and who lost. 

3.   The policy framework which Modi Ji has created will be difficult to change in short term for any other party (assuming the worst-case scenario of he not coming to the power). 

4.   I am 100% sure that he will come (as said in the prediction of August 2023) and he will also become PRESIDENT of INDIA, in future – if all goes well with him.

5.   Volatility in the market is going to be the best opportunity to buy on DIPS your chosen stocks for a seasoned long-term investor. Novice investors without proper mentor will get wiped out for sure. 

 

What NEXT?

 

Equip yourself with three things – an experienced mentor – investment skillsets and your luck. 

 

If you like our approach – you can take our inputs in all of the above areas. 

 

Think Beyond Obvious. 

Follow me on Twitter @hiteshmparikh Or on Whatsapp - +91-9869425399.

Learn a Lesson. Live with Passion & Invest with Reason.

Hitesh Parikh.