When will FII start coming back to the Indian Market?

 29^th June 2022

When will FII start coming back to the Indian Market?

Dear Fellow Investors,

Namaste! The Indian market has outperformed the world market in terms of the fall. World markets are down 25-30% while our market is down 15% something. FIIs are one side sellers since October 2021 but thanks to retail investors and DII – our market is able to absorb the selling and we are in a relatively strong position.

What could have happened had the FII also joined the GAME in buying?

On the last 3 days of March and 3 days of April – both were buyers and the market was moving up fast. There was a Tweet by Vijay Kedia that he is seeing something unusual in 30 years when both are buyers simultaneously. He was right. But that honeymoon didn’t last and FIIs started to sell and DII is buying.

What is the FACT of any market in the World?

ATMANIRBHAR word is ego-boosting. It may make some happy. But the facts are that we all are interdepended. The USA also needs money from CHINA and India also needs money from the USA. China also needs money from the USA and other investors. This is right for any country.

As long as the money keeps on the rotating country-wise – the TEJI remains on and on.

Change in FIIs stand: -

FIIs are selling worldwide and India is also not saved from their selling. Now the question comes – when will they come back or when will they restart investing in India?

According to my calculations, they will come back to all the asset classes from 12^th July onwards. Their flow should move up more from August onwards without any doubt.

We are down by just 15%. Their flow can cover up this fall fast and Nifty can make a new high by September or October end.

Why they will do this?

Everybody liked to start a WEBSITE and sell products worldwide. Except for CHINA, nobody focused on the actual production. All smart calculations and superprofits of AMAZON and other corporate giants were based on the manufacturing capacities of the CHINA only.

So, these supply-side changes will take time to improve. In the meantime, FIIS are sitting on piles of money and they will naturally want to make some quick money.

So, one step down – two steps up is a good strategy. They sold 15% down. Now buy 20%- 30% up and sell again. This will allow them to meet their Foreign exchange losses and old losses which they may have suffered by selling in the last 6 months.

You will observe all the asset classes will face the above kind of treatment without fail.

What was our call-in MAY?

On 11^th May 2022 – the following post was written. Buy in May and Celebrate Diwali or Sell in May and come back on Diwali.

https://bestofhiteshparikh.blogspot.com/2022/05/buy-in-may-and-celebrate-diwali-or-sell.html

In the same, we had already talked about the positive market before Diwali and we had urged to buy in this dull market.

The problem of NORMAL investors?

They don’t have the patience to study the market and follow it. Since they can’t study – they rely on MEDIA opinion. The business of MEDIA guy only runs if he has some breaking news every day. So, he keeps on getting new stories and sharing with the views. Retail guys get overwhelmed with the media flows and lose focus. When they lose focus – the top guys take the best advantage of their defocus.

Message for really serious investors: -

India's story will reach to peak by 2032. This was the call given in 2012. I am investing for 2032. For those who are in their 30s or 40s and want to retire early – the coming 10 years is the golden period for all of you.

Those who are interesting in fast money – they can make good money till Diwali as per the above calculations. However, the challenge is where to invest now? Which sectors to touch? Which asset classes will move fast? Unless you know the answers to the above questions – your success will be limited.

What NEXT?

It is our practice to keep our readers well ahead of the market and MACRO events.

Take advantage of the same.

Have a Great Success.

Follow me on Twitter @hiteshmparikh / WhatsApp - +91-9869425399.

Learn a Lesson. Live with Passion & Invest with Reason.

Hitesh Parikh.