What Warren Buffett Knows About USA that NO MEDIA EXPERT is telling you? READ All about USA strategy.

December 10, 15

What Warren Buffett Knows About USA that NO MEDIA EXPERT is telling you? READ All about USA strategy.

Greetings from Hitesh! It has been a quite a long time since I am keenly observing USA and its moves. In fact, I had studied the HOROSCOPE plus VASTU of USA in my post some 3 months back. All I am trying is to understand its MIND. I do not claim that I have got the HOLY GRAIL of the same – but this post will surely remove some of the most common belief about USA.

Thanks for your appreciation for my last post on BONDS and PENSION plans. Many have decided to reconsider their decision after reading our analysis. Now, let me deal with WARREN first.

Warren Buffett’s Investments:-

I am observing his behavior through his public statements and his yearly shareholder letters. He has always been positive in USA – in words and in deeds. The biggest proof is his major investments are in USA even today!! He has not come to EMERGING MARKET /CHINA or any other country in a BIG WAY. WHY? He must have some inside view of USA – that experts are not talking about.

Let me deal with SYRIA incidence to bring home the point.

WHAT is happening in SYRIA?

The game started long back with IRAN and IRAQ war in 1980s. When USA troop attacked IRAQ in 2003 – it went into CIVIL between SHIAS and SUNNI. SUNNI were in MARJORITY, but when USA left IRAQ – it gave power to Mr.Nouri Al Maliki as a democratic president in 2008. This guy gave the major power to SHIAS in Government and SUNNI’s felt left out.

Sunni’s decided to come out with their leader – this led to the birth of Al-Baghdadi who established the organization ISIS (Islamic state of Iraq and Syria) controlling majority of the Sunni areas of IRAQ.

(This is USA way of dealing with the other countries. It will have its own government and to control the government – they support the rebellions like Al-Baghdadi. Same way they created ARAB SPRING (rebellion in the Arab world against their rulers).

In June 2014, ISIS announced the establishment of a worldwide caliphate. Al-Baghdadi was named its caliph. Systematically, after 2011 the effects of the Arab spring started overflowing into Syria.

The Arab spring led to a lot of protests against the Assad govt. in SYRIA. But it could not cover much ground.

So, a fraction of the Syrian army broke off and formed the free Syrian army with the help of the US. The rebels plus free Syrian army holds territory in the north-western part of Syria. From 2011 to 2014, the ISIS started occupying large areas, mainly Sunni dominated areas, of Iraq and Syria. During the Syrian civil war, the ISIS captured the Syrian city of Al-Raqqah, which became its headquarters in Syria. 

Today there are 5 parties in the picture.

1.  The Russians forces, led by Vladimir Putin.

2.  The Syrian Army, led by President Assad of Syria.(Supported By The Russians and IRAN).

3.  ISIS led by Al-Baghdadi. (According to me, secretly backed by the US to destabilize the Assad govt)

4.  The Free Syrian Army, supported/backed by the US.

5.  The United States and its Allies.

What is the POINT I am driving at?

If you study closely – you will find USA is involved directly or in-directly in the game. Most GUYS are of the opinion that USA is doing all these things to take control of OIL assets in the Middle East. I find it FUNNY. All obvious reasons are always FUNNY. 90% of the lot is happy believing in obvious reasons and that’s why they remain NORMAL for the life.

Another belief about USA is that it is a consumption economy. You talk about it and all NORMAL guys would AGREE that it is consumption economy!! In fact, when QEs were launched these guys were happy that they would be able to sell their goods to USA guys and make money.

But have you ever thought on what basis – USA is able to afford such a high consumption? On what basis they are able to carry such a HUGE DEBT in their books? What makes them comfortable to leave such a life? On what basis they are controlling the world?

Let us look at the USA:-

USA has a Defense budget of USD 400 bln to USD 700 bln since 2001. It had always been highest in the WORLD in absolute terms since 1947!!

Just to give perspective to this figure – India’s GDP is USD 1.8 Trillion and USA budget is 30% of it!! China’s Defense Budget is about USD 110 Bln, second highest after USA!! USA is spending 5 times more than CHINA on Defense. Do you understand why CHINA is still listening to USA?

They generate lot of Weapons of MASS destructions and to sell them they need WAR or WAR like Situations. So, they go on creating fighting between various countries. (Most civilians are being killed by both the sides in SYRIA!! Do you understand the game?)

Every time Pakistan attacks us and our govt do not reply in the same way – some jokers start criticizing the govt for their coward-ness. But we are blessed with most intelligent people at the top and they do not want to give our control to USA game plan by starting a WAR with Pakistan. So, USA is forced to look for other market.

What will be USA’s Next Move?

If you look at the Middle East Map – only IRAN is left out. IRAN is supporter of ASSAD Govt. in SYRIA. From Feb.,2016 – I see IRAN will be a direct PARTY to the WAR with US led groups. USA wants to sell as much weapons as it can in 2016 to revive the economy.

USA has the fair IDEA that they will be able to do it very successfully in 2016. So, they have started a talk of increasing the rates. They wanted to do it in 2015 early – but the WAR was not so SEVERE. But now the WAR will enter in to LAST PHASE and USA will reap the most benefit of the same in two ways.

For WAR they will sell Weapons and to revive and reconstruct the countries so destroyed  – USA multinationals will get billions of DOLLAR business. In the process – Balance of PAYMENT of USA will get covered up and debt will go down!! It’s all about Money, Honey!! Got the game?

What is my View?

USA has stated a two-way game plan to revive the economy. One was inside and other was outside as explained above.

In late 90s when they realized that they can’t do anything – they did 9/11 by bringing down World Trade Centre ( they did it and not Al-Qyada as it is believed). They allowed Financial Scam in 2007!! These have helped US Govt to mallow down the expectations of US citizen. Today – US guys are little careful when they spend their money!! So, expenses have gone down.

Along the side it started attack on IRAQ in 2003 as explained above. With the WAR move – they will sell their weapons, generate income and reduce debt.

Mr. Buffett knows this and that’s why he is least interested in investing outside USA!! This makes a strong case of big rate HIKE post 2016!! Not NOW.

But will USA be successful? I will deal with my reading some other day.

What Next?

I always try to go beyond the OBVIOUS. This article is part of that effort. Hope you like the same. If you like our approach to read between the lines and understand the HIDDEN and UNTOLD secrets – you can take advantage of our services. This ability is a MUST when you deal with the MARKET!!

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Your decisions today will decide your destiny in 2016. So, make correct and timely decision to join us NOW.

Wish You ALL A THINKING THURSDAY.

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Hitesh Parikh.