Market Falls and US Election – is it a Co-incidence for Century?

September 7, 2015

Market Falls and US Election – is it a Co-incidence for Century?

Greetings from Hitesh! Nifty made 14 months low today and experts are of the opinion that Nifty may go down to 7100!! At 7600 they are telling that Nifty will fall by another 500 points!! My experiences with market tell me that MARKET never agrees to the consensus estimates. May god help those who follow the EXPERTS?

I was looking at the Market falls in 1900 to 2015. Almost all major falls like 2008 / 2001/ 1994/ 1987 / 1981 / 1974 till 1929 great depression has happened around the dates of US presidential elections.

If it happened for once or twice in 115 years – I may consider it a Co-incidence. However, it has happened every 8 years in last 115 years!! Can you consider it as a Co-incidence? I do not consider it as a co-incidence.

Indian Scenario:-

In my very famous article of 2013 – I had given Indian TRACK record under title of “Inside Story of Dollar Appreciation + Sensex moments and Election”. Here also we see the same kind of           Correlation with the market. If Indian election can affect Indian Market – Don’t you think US election can affect World Market?

What happens during Election?

You need tons of money to fight an election. The same has to be financed by somebody. To generate that kind of money – they need to pull out money  from various assets classes. This money goes out of the main channel to pay for various expenditures related to elections.  It takes about 2-3 years for this money to come back to MAIN channel.

When assets are sold and money goes out of the channel – the respective assets classes faces the depression like situations.

Since last US election – US economy is not growing. Europe economy is also not growing. China was the last to join the game of low economic growth in August 2015. The only markets which were active world over were STOCK MARKET and MONEY MARKETS. They do not need any factories/productions and labors. So they used to create the wealth through MARKET this time and they are selling now – so that they can pay for the ELECTIONS and other EXPENDITURES.

Why EXPERT’s complicate the matter?

If they tell you TRUTH in such a simple words the way we are telling you – will you go to them? They complicate with Technical data / Fundamental data / FII selling / Currency rate movements and things like that. They keep you engaged with non-essential data and 90% of the normal guys are interested in talking about this. They feel they have knowledge / they know all!! These are their illusions and I do not want to disturb their SWEET DREAMS.

What is the fundamental force behind MARKETs?

Whether you like it or not / whether big guys and experts agree in public or not – the fact is – Market runs on LAW OF JUNGLE - Might is RIGHT.  6 billion people of the world are controlled by few thousand people world-wide. I and you come in the majority of 6 billion people. We see what they want us to see / we read what they want us to read / we talk what they want us to talk. Apparently, what you know or what you claim you know – is far away from the TRUTH.

If you are a DIE HARD fundamental analysts - ask yourself a simple question – how come Mr.Mukesh Ambani is number one richest person in India – in spite of Reliance share coming down from around Rs.3000 in early 2008 to Rs.900 in last 7 years? Shareholders have not earned a penny in last 6 years and the management is in TOP list for all the 6 years!!

If you are a die hard – technical guy – how come all the world markets follow the trend of fall and rise together??? Who is buying in all the market simultaneously and selling in all the market simultaneously?

Don’t give LOGIC for above. We also know that. We want to know the TRUTH.

Knowing these SECRET – how do we study the market?

We always see the ground realities. We are not much interested in FUNDAMENTAL and TEHCNICAL FACTORS. We are always interested in understanding the real reason behind every rise and fall. Unless you understand the PLAYERS and their motives – correctly – all your superficial knowledge will not lead you to the major success.

By God’s grace – we were the first to ask you all to start investing way back on 5^th Dec., 2008 and told you we see negative AUGUST on 29^th July 2015!! This is only and only possible when you understand the GROUND REALITIES.

What is our call to REAL INVESTORS and TRADERS?

Warren Buffett / Rakesh Jhunjhunwals and other successful investors know these secret very well. They have digested this TRUTH in their System. They see this Up and Down cycle as part of the game. They do not get carried away by major falls and major highs. They just become active at such time only.

If you are watching Indian Market – just see the delivery percentage of some of the - A - Group companies have gone up from around 50% to 75%.....who is buying and why he is buying? Just think.

If you are trader – use this volatility to TRADE like anything. You do not get such a volatile scenario regularly in market.

What NEXT?

Einstein used to say – SIMPLICITY is a part of GENUIS. If you love our simplicity and our track record of giving right advice at the right time – I suggest you follow us for your better financial future.

Destiny Management is standing on 4 pillars of TRUTH / TRANSPERANCY, TRUST and TRUIMPH. If you appreciate the same - you are welcome.

Wish you all a happy investing.

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Hitesh Parikh