Morgan Stanley says “The biggest sell-off since February is coming” – what is our call?

Thursday, 02 August 2018

Morgan Stanley says “The biggest sell-off since February is coming” – what is our call?

Greetings from Hitesh! Today we are going to deal with the main question in the Normal investor’s Mind – What next in Market? Recent Week – Morgan Stanley had come out with above report. We will deal with that also.

Let me share some of the facts of the market first.

Since January this has been the performance of small caps and midcaps stocks in the market.

Stats on performance of small and midcap stocks in India in 2018

1.   800 stocks corrected more than 70%

2.  1500 stocks corrected more than 50%

3.  1500 stocks corrected more than 40%

4.  150 stocks corrected in between 20-40%.

5.  50% of BSE 500 index stocks had corrected in excess of 50%.

What happened to the retail guys in last 3 months – March to June.,2018.

As usual retail guys were sitting on side lines and they have not invested much in the last 3 months when the stocks were moving down.

They have also not sold their stocks in loss. They are still holding.

Whatever has happened in the market there were only three major players – Company Management / FIIs and DIIs. All the three are well informed and they know what they are doing. They would have minted great money in last three months.

What is our call on FALL?

I was among the very few who could see the fall coming way back in MAY 2017 and tell you all. In October, I had given the time frame and exactly the market is behaving as per our call.

When market was going down – Morgan was talking about TEJI. Now, market has already fallen, and they are talking about BIGGER CORRENCTION!! I am surprised by performance of their calls. Market is always doing 100% opposite of what they have said. I am still not understanding that with the best of the world skill sets and best of the information network in all corners of the world, at their disposal, how come they are going wrong time after time?

If you look at the NIFTY 50 stocks – only 5-10 stocks are managing the NIFTY INDEX and same goes for BSE SENSEX. So, if at all the fall comes – it will come in these stocks and again – these 10 stocks are in the portfolio of mutual funds and FIIs only. So, here again the small guys have nothing to lose or gain!!

According to may understanding, I have following views.

1.  Market has already fallen.

2.  Small investors have been in side lines in the last three months.

3.  If at all FALL comes – small investors will not get hit hard as expected by MORGAN.

4.  Morgan has a long track record of going 100% wrong in predicting the market (at least in public domain). So, I would not get surprised to see TEJI in MIDCAPS and SMALL CAPS.

What it means for SMALL INVESTORS?

There is no FREE lunch. Those who give opinion on MEDIA, they do it with certain assumptions about underlying market forces and they always give a disclaimer at the end. If you keep on following them, you will never make big money.

For making Big Money, you need to have your own skill sets and conviction before you invest. At Destiny Management we help you build those skill sets and conviction. Our track record in predicting the market well in advance is the best TESTIMONIAL for our expertise. If you wish to take advantage of the same, please approach us.

Have a Great Week Ahead.

Follow me on Twitter @hiteshmparikh or on Whatsapp - +91-9869425399.

Live With Passion…Invest With Passion.

Hitesh Parikh.