AMBIT says Mumbai Property Prices MAY CRASH by 50%. We have 100% different VIEW.

July 22, 15

AMBIT says Mumbai Property Prices MAY CRASH by 50%. We have 100% different VIEW.

Greetings from Hitesh! Thanks a ton for your words of appreciation for my last post on POET’s Love Song. The same thing happens in real life – time after time. Just take an example of AMBIT report on Property. Reading the CAPTION – people have forwarded on WHATSAPP to one and all. Let me deal with the reality of REALTY!!

Have you ever seen the poster of C Grade Film?

I am sure you would have seen at least one. The usual theme of the Poster is to show the some revealing part of the heroin of that movie. Normal guy – looking at the poster – assumes that she would remove the left over clothes also in movie!! He buys the TICKET only to feel cheated at the end of the movie.

Let me deal with this – if at all she removes all clothes – first one to see would be the DIRECTOR / ACTOR / Cameraman / Movie Crews. The missing aspect of this cheating with you is – you are focusing on just seeing. The focus should be on the questions – if at all I see ALL – WHAT I INTEND TO GET? If my intentions are not clear – I will have no parameter for measuring my success or failure.

How NORMAL INVESTORS BEHAVE?

When you see particular kind of people watches these C grade films – we feel happy for our intelligence. But the fact, we are the same.

Most investors or would be investors ask me – Will Market Go up or go down? This is the FUNNIEST question one can ask.

What will you do if it goes up? What will you do if it goes down? Moviegoer gets his orgasm by just looking at the poster – same way this guy gets his orgasm by just asking whether market will go up or go down. He has nothing to DO!! Passing time.

The most important questions should be – How much money I can make in a Year if I invest X amount today? Or better I have x amount – I want to make it 2X – what should I do under given market conditions?

Very few ask these kinds of questions and that’s why there are very few successful investors.

Now let me deal with AMBIT REPORT:-

It says Property Prices MAY CRASH by 50%. Our questions are – has it not crashed so far? What is their definition of CRASH? For me crash means – my neighbor should sell his flat at 50% and go to his hometown. Other important question for normal investors who are waiting for the so-called FALL – will they be able to buy at 50% lower?

What happened in the PAST?

In 1996-1998 there was a crash in Property Market. There were no buyers and no IT Guys to buy big flats with heavy loans. Reliance Ind had bought 150 flats from RAHEJA at 50% discount in ANDHERI next to Fame Adlabs. (I am writing this from MY MEMORY)

What is happening NOW?

Ajay Piramal invested Rs.1200 Crores in OMKAR Group in last month. The builder had cash crunch. The other details are not available. There are many deals like these that have taken place in the market in last 6 months.

Do you think the deals are done at 100% of the prices? Builders would have offered huge discount before they would have got such a big amount. So, according to us – 50% or MORE CRASH has already happened for a select few. AMBIT is late in its report in this sense.

There are corporates like Reliance, which have huge cash and will be eager to invest in the best of the property at 50% or more discount!! So, if at all the general market crash – you will not be able to buy the flat at lower prices!! Select few will get the benefits.

The missing Piece of Liquidity :-

In the past we have seen during MANDI – there is LIQUIDTY CRUNCH. So, when LIQUIDITY CRUNCH comes – we see it as MANDI!! Both are different!!

The fact is we are facing liquidity crunch due to some other reasons (not because of MANDI) and those who have money are setting the rules of the game. Mr.Piramal will not invest Rs.1200 Cr if he sees MANDI or further fall!! He is one of the SHREWDEST INVESTOR India has ever seen. You can compare him with Mr.Buffett rather than RAKESH.

Balance Sheet is always a ZERO sum GAME – so, cash has to be lying somewhere!!  Our understanding for liquidity crunch is simple. People who were in power before MODI – are having tons of money – but since they lost the power – they are waiting for the right time to re-enter the market.

Those are very big money and they are lying out of the system. THEY HAVE FLUSHED OUT LIQUIDITY. So, There is NO MANDI. There is genuine Liquidity Crunch. If there is genuine MANDI – PEOPLE will not buy at 50% also!! Just think.

What is my personal call?

We do not agree with the AMBIT’s predication that FALL MAY COME. According to us 50% crash has already happened for a SELECT FEW and it is still there if you have right kind of CASH with you. AMBIT is late at least by 6 months in its report.

We never invest in PROPERTY and NEVER RECOMMEND ALSO. But if you want to buy property for staying – I think you should start looking for it NOW. The Government is TRYING HARD to improve the liquidity. They will be able to do in coming SIX months at the most. So, practically, you have just 3 - 4 months time to buy your DREAM HOUSE. Just remember this in DEC., 2015.

How do we communicate?

We always tell you in ADVANCE. Once again we are telling you – If you want to make tons of money – please come to us. We are least interested in OPINIONS. We are interested in Making Money. If you are also interested in MAKING MONEY – please join us.

In SPRITE Advertisement they say – “sidhi baat, no bakwas”.

Have a Great Week Ahead.

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Live With Passion…. Invest With Passion.

Hitesh Parikh